An editorial from the New York Tribune, Oct. 18, 1860:
The fact that New-York is necessary to the Fusionists — that, since their utter rout in Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio, they cannot do without it — is somehow argued from by them as though it gave them some sort of prospect, or hope, or chance, of carrying it. They proceed on much the same basis with the dog-seller who justified his warranty of a piece of four-footed merchandise as a good sheep-dog on the ground that he had been tried at everything else and failed, and that, as nothing was ever made in vain, he must be a good sheep-dog.
Since they have hopelessly lost Pennsylvania, where Buchanan beat Fremont by more than 80,000 majority, and Indiana, where Buchanan beat Fremont by 24,000 majority, and Ohio, where Buchanan and Fillmore together beat Fremont over 10,000, but which Judge Brinckerhoff, and advanced and speciously obnoxious Republican, has just carried by more than 10,000 over Smith, supported by a perfect Fusion of all the anti-Republican parties, they argue that they must somehow do a great deal better in New-York — for how else can they do at all? Let us look at the facts.
In 1856 this State polled very nearly Six Hundred Thousand votes for President, divided as follows:
Fremont … 276,007
Buchanan … 195,878
Fillmore … 124,604
Fremont over Buchanan — 80,129
Buchanan and Fillmore over Fremont .. 44, 475
Supposing that 15, 000 voters that supported Fremont are now for Fusion, and only 5,000 who supported Buchanan are now for Lincoln, (though we believe the changes as between the two leading parties are at least even if not favorable to our side), Lincoln must have just one-quarter of the Fillmore vote to make the State sure for him.
Can any one doubt that more than one quarter of the Fillmore vote of our State will be given to Lincoln?
The basic argument, and one that was being made in many states, was that Fremont had come pretty close to winning the presidency for the Republicans in 1856, and that the Republicans were considerably stronger now.
The Tribune went on to predict a Lincoln victory by 50,000 votes. FiveThirtyEight.com, eat your heart out: the actual vote on Nov. 6 was Lincoln, 362,646, Fusion 312,510.